2018年3月29日星期四

五十萬實戰倉 - 三月結 (NAV: 163.5) (+63.5%)

Only English version is available.


In March, I spent most of the time of holidays again and handling miscellaneous things about my family. This is the ideal lifestyle that I am looking for if someday I achieve so-called financial freedom. The data as shown in my portfolio are the prices cut-off by the market end today.

Stock in Portfolio

The indicative price is based on the market-closed price on 29th March for HK Market and 28th March for US Market.

[Click to enlarge]
*P/L for Futures are realized and accumulated. Amount is equivalent to the maintaining margin of the Futures.

% of allocation 
- Links 17%
- A-Living 3%
- Nvidia 17%
- Futures 14%
- Cash 50%

There were limited trades within March:

Purchased IPO of Time-intercon (1729,HK) with allocation of 8,000 stocks only at $0.5. Sold at $0.61.
Day-trades the recent stock which undergone IPO, B & S International who managing bubble tea business; Bought at $3.07 and sold at $3.29; Bought on another day at $6.00 and sold at $6.28. 
Misc. Mini HSI futures trade. Shorting is dominant within March.

The above three non-core trade contribute $6,640 to the portfolio.
There were no major core trades within March.
·
The previous trades of HSBC / BocHK / Hangseng bank / Apple / JetBlue Airline / iBond / American Airline / ADI Tech / Cathay Pacific / HKEX / Pingan Insurance / AAC Tech / Tongda Group / Tesla (change of broker) / CN Literature / China Software International / Tencent / Facebook / Tesla / Google etc realised profit or lost. I am not going to repeat here.

Announced / Received Dividend: $27,835 (5.6%Y / 2 years)
Expected amount of Dividend in 2018: $3,600 (0.72%Y only)

Taking into account of handling fee, commissions and tax ($9,200, 1.8%), the portfolio worth became $817,274 (included dividends). The change is about +63.5% from the start date of this fund. It drops another 2.3% when compared to Feb 2018 and 5.1% from Jan 2018.

In the fund, the cash level is about $402,000; Profit (Realized / Unrealized) is about $298,639; Percentage of investment is maintained at 50%.

At the same time, Hong Kong HS Index up about 37% from 21,950; DJIA Index up about 44.7% from 16,472.
The fund is outperform the above two indexes, with the consideration of fee and dividend. It is because the cash level is relatively higher now and therefore when the index drops, the effect on the portfolio worth is minimized.

Return and Management

The portfolio has been ran for 30th month(2.5 years). Beneficial from the bull market, the return is about 63.5%, which is already 4 times to the original target. The original target for two year is 15.6%, which consideration of earning per share grows 10% each year. Besides, it is successfully reduces the number the stocks to 3 nos. only (2 nos. of HK stock / 1 US stock / 1 mini-futures). The adjustment of the fund avoids the huge drop of index this month. It also in-line with the long-term goal for increasing cash level.

Hong Kong Stock

Links
The stock price of Links hit the historical peak of $75, higher than our valuation. In the whats-app group for students, I had already point out that it was logical to reduce the position of Links. By then, the US bond yield was going up, and coincidentally the US / HK markets dropped significantly. The stock price falls to the level of $65. Similar situation were found in Dec 2016. At that time the stock price was below $50.

The rationale of retreating was that traditional investors of REITS emphasize the importance of the dividend yield of the REITS. The difference between the yield and the US bond yield is their measuring indicator. When the US bond yield is expected to rise, the difference between the two will reduced. However, investing US bond is always having lower risk when compared to REITS. Therefore, reducing in difference is not beneficial for REITS.

Besides, some analysts also pointed out the assumed capitalization rate use in the valuation of Links are low. With the consideration of the interest rate going up as well as the general rental market in Hong Kong, the cap rate for valuation might be increased in future. The valuation of Links’ properties might reduce. Therefore, the price momentum for Links is weak recently.

However, my view on investing Links was not about the dividend. Personally I think the stock price will reflect its value someday sometime.

Within March, there were trading days that links occasionally has a re-bound over 2.0%. The driver was the expectation of interest rate increase will not be as vigorous as before, attracting a lot of purchasing power.

I will keep the Links REIT in my portfolio for long term investment. 

Lately, Links is trading at HKD$67.0.

A Living
No particular comment on A Living.

US Stock

Nvidia

The latest result of Nvidia is outperform. Earnings increased dramatically. The stock price has a strong momentum to break the records from time to time. I hold my position of Nvidia and purchased additional 40 stock near the end of Feb.

However, due to recent re-treat of Tech Stock and potential trade war between US and China, the stock price of Nvidia drops quite significantly. Therefore it appears some unrealised lost in the portfolio. I still keep my position of 80 stock of Nvidia in this portfolio.

Lately, NVDA is trading at USD$221.35.

Stocks not in this Portfolio now but I still want to comment on it:

Tencent

I bought Tencent before because I expected its ability for earning growth as well as it potential in the areas of financial technology. The previous announced result indicated that it was in the right direction. The last quarterly result shows it ability for generating huge earnings. Many analysts had reviewed its target price. To my best knowledge and information, there are already at least six analysts advised Tencent will have a target price over $500 in the future 12 months.

In the past three months, tencent retreated to approx.. $360. I believe some of the investors had already sold their stock during the retreat. Before the announcement of its result, Tencent's stock price even climbed up to historical price of $476.6.

After the release of the result, the result was slightly beat the consented expectation. However, at the same time the major stockholder of Tencent, Naspers from South Africa announced that some of their investors urged them to sell part of the stocks of Tencent, for realising the profit from it. In their statement, they announced that they will sell the shares with the worth of US$ 10.6 billion dollars. 

With the worries of slowing-down growth in gaming market, the Nasper's shocking news, the major retreat of US tech stock, the collapse of Facebook's stock price and the potential trade war between US and China, tencent stock price has retreated to near $400.

Paragraphs written in previous months:

The risk of holding tencent is high valuation. The current trading position of tencent is at Current PE of 50x-60x. When the market is bullish, such a high PE can be bearly maintained. However, when the market is bearish or volatile, tencent or alike stock is in a dangerous position for selling. Since its market cap is high, PE is high and high correlation to Hang Seng Index, shorting of tencent will be significant if there is the tendency of lowering the Index. When investor’s confidence of holding this stock is diminishing, regardless how well the business it is, the stock might be traded at more reasonable PE range of 20x-30x. The potential downside will be significant and noticeable. I will hold the stock of tencent with a very cautious mind of selling it anytime when the market is retreat.

With the significant retreat of both HK / US markets in Feb, I decided to sell tencent within $430-$440. Eventually, all of my tencent stock was sold. With the valuation becomes more reasonable and a foreseeable uptrend of the market, I will definitely buy the stock back.

Lately, Tencent is trading at HKD$409.6.

Google

Due to the risk of collapse of US market, I sold all Alphabet stock in Feb. I wish to purchase it again if the valuation is available and when the market is considered less volatile. (Reviewed from today, it was a wise move!)

Lately, GOOG is trading at USD$1004.56.

Facebook

Facebook getting into a embarrassing position with a critic and crisis with Cambridge Analytica. In short, it is a crisis to this social media company that not protecting the user's data well and leading to the interference of voting by external parties. This made the users, the investors and the analysts all suddenly against this company / stock.

As social media stock is very sensitive to user's perception, I believe the stock price of Facebook will be very weak in coming months. Investors may also not to provide Facebook a high PE for trading, even though there will be anticipated growth in number of users, revenue and profit.

Paragraphs written in previous months:

Miss J of the TS Research Team expressed her view on FB. She worried the trend of using facebook will be gone in coming years. I am very old-fashion and I have no idea whether the younger generation is using facebook or not.

This issue was widely discussed in the TS winter gathering with other students. In conclusion, facebook is a very effective platform for information sharing, however, it is no longer funny and entertaining. We believed the younger generation will spend time on Instagram for sharing. The only merit is that Instagram is part of the Facebook Group.

Obviously, the facebook business is not considered sustainable. It will not grow forever. As the long-term investor, close monitoring on quarterly result is essential. When there is trend of dropping Monthly Active User (MAU) number, I will consider to sell all of the Facebook’s stock.

FB had a hugh pressure on its price in Jan. Many users reflected to facebook that it is not funny anymore. The CEO / Founder, Mr Mark Zuckerberg, decided to re-position Facebook. From now on, the sponsored stories will be appeared in lower frequency in the News Feed. After Mark’s announcement, the price of FB dropped to $176. I sold most of my FB stock at $177. The action might be considered to be sudden without carefully thought. However, the single nature of business did worry me. I will sell it with considerable amount of profit at market’s bull. This investment offered me 70% profit on capital.

Although the result of Facebook beats the expectation, I decided to close all of my position of Facebook stock in Feb. (Reviewed from today, it was a wise move!)

Lately, FB is trading at USD$153.03.

Tesla

Last week is a terrible week of Tesla Inc. The recent bad news are:
  • Accident of self-driving car of other company;
  • Accident of a Model X results a huge fire and fatality;
  • The board approved huge options scheme for Elon Musk with conditions;
  • The delay of manufacturing of Model 3;
  • The worries of Tesla's cashflow;
  • The unclear political environment and policy risk;
  • The down-grading of tesla price.
Paragraphs written in previous months:

Tesla announced its 4th Quarter result with a loss per share of USD$4 approx. It productivity and delivery reached historical high with 26,150 cars delivered in one quarter.  It consisted of 11,865 units of Model X, 14,065 units of Model S and only 220 units of Model 3. The delivery / productivity of Model 3 did not meet any expectation of the market. Tesla clarified there is no major problem in manufactory, except a few bottlenecks in supply chains.

In my opinion, usually tesla stock price might drop after the announcement of the result due to the poor financial indicators. Therefore, I sold all stock of tesla at ~USD$340 and increase the cash level of the fund before the announcement of the 4th Quarter result. 

(Reviewed from today, it was a wise move!)

Lately, FB is trading at USD$257.78.

Market

Personally I didn’t have a too bullish view on the market. I had expressed my views on many platforms, articles, videos etc. I am not going to repeat. The HK market re-bound to 31,XXX and then retreated again to the level of 30,000 today. I only to able gain HK $10,000 with my operations in futures trading. Shorting is still in dominant position. 

Paragraphs written in previous months:
Sth wrong with my keyboard: HSI PE ratio is approx. 17 now, even the forward PE ratio is 15.3, it is NOT cheap anymore. If the index rise 10% more, says 3,200 pts to 35,000, the current PE will be over 18 and the forward PE ratio will be over 16. It is already in a dangerous zone. Increasing cash level and stop purchasing is very important. Please bear in mind. The yield of HSI drops to a level about 2.71%, which is already 1 standard deviation below the historical average. Although it is not common to have forecast of HSI yield, my data indicates that 2018 HSI yield will not have significant improvement. As such, if HSI rise to 35,000, the HSI yield becomes 2.5%, which is considered to be extremely low. I really don't have a very bullish view on the market. Take care, friends.

When the P/E of HS Index is even higher and the yield is even lower, a single bad news could drive the significant retreat of the market. I considered it as “Party Time Over”. I need to be cautious and monitor it closely. By the time, I might conduct a big short to everything.

Research Team Members

I will have a short lunch with a potential team member tomorrow. I will update you if she could join us. She has a excellent academic and working background which is a missing puzzle of our team.

Video Class

If you would like to learn more on Tung Sing's investment style, stock picking skill and risk management, please feel free to email me / text me for joining the video class with fee applied. More information with a lot of positive review from other student is available in the following link:


Disclaimers

This webpage and this article are web-based blog. All of the content is the personal view purely. I cannot guarantee the integrity or the accuracy of the content. Under all circumstances, the content shall not be regarded as investment’s advice, they are not invitation, funding rising, recommendations, advice etc. The reader shall be responsible solely of their investment decision. There is no direct or indirect connection of the content linked to the reader investor’s profit or loss.

I personally might have long or short positions and the derivatives of all of the assets mentioned in the article. Under unpredicted conditions without prior notification, I will open or close the positions. I consider I have bias on the asset that I may have interested to. The readers shall read the content with their own understanding.

I am not the licensed person of SEC HK. I will not offer any advice on investment.

Photo

I did not make any good picture for this article this month. Therefore, let share with you my latest set up for workstation / playroom. It is highly efficient for all function now. I like it so much.


1 則留言:

  1. 講多D美國科技股丫~~~

    另,你個機械KEYBOARD,如果半夜打字,實比人投訴。。。

    回覆刪除

免責聲明

本網頁純屬網誌,一切言論純粹是個人意見。本人亦無法保證網誌內容的真確性和完整性。無論在任何情況下,不應被視為投資建議,也不應被成要約、招攬、邀請、誘使、建議或推薦。 讀者一切的投資決定以及該投資決定引致的收益或損失,概與本人無關。

筆者不是證監會持牌人士,不能提供任何投資意見。

Follow by Email

I Love Travel

除左投資,我其實好鍾意去旅行,去過的地方:
北京 天津 武漢 廣州 珠海 台北 高雄 墾丁 曼谷 蘇梅 清邁 新加玻 民丹島 首爾 春川 內藏山 井邑 東京 大板 京都 奈良 神戶白濱 富士河口湖 名古屋 犬山 白川鄉 長島 鈴鹿 千葉 佐倉 那霸 明護 倫敦 劍橋 溫莎 巴夫 溫特米爾 列斯 愛丁堡 巴黎 里昂 梵爾賽 茵特拉肯 少女峰 洛森 羅馬 比薩 佛羅倫斯 米蘭 威尼斯 梵蒂崗 烏德勒支 阿姆斯特丹 鹿特丹 尼斯 沙巴 神山

關於我

我的相片
東昇 是土生土長的香港 80 後,和很多香港人一樣,沒有家底,畢業後所有事都是靠自己的。19 歲開始投資股票,27歲獨力上車,現在向財務自由第一個milestone努力中。 希望在此分享投資心得及經驗。 我這個實在的上車故事,總可以給人們一些不離地又沒有嘩眾的分享吧? 歡迎留言/電郵,一定解答。 Contact: hkgconsumer@gmail.com