2018年3月2日星期五

五十萬實戰倉 - 二月結 (NAV: 165.8) (+65.8%)

二月主要是過新年及休息,以及打理家中的事務,所以今次二月結, 我想以昨天 (1/3) 實戰倉作一個小結

現有持倉如下:



*港股價格為 3 1 收市價美股價格為 3 1 收市價 

今個月此倉股票有很多買賣:

  • 月中賣出了 100 股 騰訊 (0700.HK) @ $435.0, 獲利 $16,700 
  • 月中賣出了 1500 股 新股 雅生活 (3319.HK) @ $9.55, 損失 $4,125。
  • 月中賣出了 8000 股 新股 匯聚科技 (1729.HK) @ $0.61, 獲利 $880 
  • 月中賣出了 40 股 Facebook (FB) @ USD $178.3, 獲利 $6,646 
  • 月中賣出了 6 股 Alphabet Class B (GOOG) @ USD $1,027, 獲利 $6,231。
  • 月中賣出了 20 股 Tesla (TSLA) @ USD$340, 獲利 $6,781 
  • 月中賣出了 70 股 Tesla (TSLA) @ USD$338.9, 損失 $3,776。 
  • 月尾買入了 1000 股 領展 (0823.HK) @ $67.85。
  • 月尾買入了 40 股 Nvidia (NVAD) @ USD$245。
  • 期指買賣, 比上月多賺 $16,500。
**另有之前的 匯控 /中銀 / 恆生 ;Apple / Jetblue / iBond / AAL / ADI / 國泰航空 / 港交所  / 平保 / 瑞聲 / 通達 / Tesla 轉倉/ 閱文 / 中軟國際 / 騰訊等已實現的盈虧,不在此重覆  

--------------------------------------------------------------
已公佈及收取的股息:   $27,835 (5.6 厘 / 2 年
2018 全年預計將收取股息:      $3,600 (只有 0.72 )

計及手續費、佣金及 ($9,000 , ~1.8%),累計股息後組合由 $500,000 變成現 $829,000 左右,由開倉計升了 65.8%, 比上月跌了 2.8%當中持有現金 $422,246左右盈利為 $329,000 (已實現 + 未實現); 資金投入再降低為 $49%

組合同期恆指升了 41.4% (from 21,950); 道指升了49.3% (from 16,472);
由於組合有投資港股及美股, 並有計及股息及手續費, 表現比兩地股市跑

---------------------------------------------------------------

組合回報及管理

踏進第  29 個月,這組合已成立了兩年半,受惠於牛市,回報已遠超越原定計劃 65 %, 好過期望的目標多出四倍 (期望的目標是兩年有 15.6% 是基於樂觀估計我持有的企業股份每年盈利只有10% 增長)。此外,成功將此倉股票減到只有 3 隻(兩隻港股, 一隻美股, 一張小期指), 這個月成個避去大跌的損失,也作為原定計劃的長遠減持的一部份。

2 月此倉沒有派息

月間恆指創下了歷史高位 33,154 後有一次較大的調整,然後最近緩升至30,000-31,500水平。現在則是好淡爭持。

港股略評

領展

領展上月曾創下 $75 新高,高過估值價格。當時已在學生群組指出其股價過高,按理應減持。其後受美國十年期國債息率不斷上升的影響,再加上市況不好,轉眼間領展曾回調到 $65 左右。差不多的情況在 2016 年 12 月發生,當時股價更穿了 $50。傳統投資者著重比較 REITS 的息率及美國十年國債的息率。當預期加息,兩者息差減小,風險卻不變,會對 REITS 不利。另外也有研究指出現時領展用的資本還原法的資本比率作估值時 (cap rate) 可能太低,日後如果因加息,租務市況等因素調高 cap rate, 其估值有機會下降,所以近來股價也有一個比較深的調整。

但如果你投資 823 這類 REITS, 不當它為收息股看,當然可以另作別論。所以對我個人而言,我覺得該 REITS 仍有返回每基金資產價格的能力。

月內領展只有兩個交易天升多於 1.5%。第 1 個是消息指加息步伐可能放慢時,即時吸引到買盤; 第 2 個則是2月28日公告了賣出的 17 個物業在 2017 年 12 月的估值,cap rate 不升反跌,令投資者可能曈景其全年業績估值更上一層樓,再次吸引了買盤 (雖然公告已說明 17 個物業估值的 cap rate 跟 17/18 年度報告是沒有關係的)。

有關領展的業績及我的買賣, 可以按此看到.
領展的最新公告: 

騰訊

之前增持騰訊是仍看好其增長,及未來其 Fin tech 的能力。業績顯示我的看法正確. 本期季度業績也再次反映其瘋狂盈利能力。大行紛紛更新其目標價, 現在已有有最小 6 間大行超過 $500 多元。

三個月芾騰訊曾跌至 $360 元, 相信實力及心理質素差點的投資者已可能給震了。事隔數月, 騰訊已爬升到最高 476 元。

港股見頂後受美股連日大跌影響也今跌,有一天急跌了 1600 點。在風險管理及長遠增加現金的情況下,我決定在跌市的頭 3 天減持。所以騰訊則在 $430 - $440 間放走了。

還看大市氣氛及估值, 有機會時,我會買回騰訊的。

之前寫: 唯一危險的地方是此股經常在 PE 50- 60x 位置交易。市況好時,高 PE 當然可以維持。市況不好時,此類股份最容易被人拋售。由於市值大,PE 高,如牛市玩完時,要質低指數最好是找其下手,即使日後騰訊盈利仍能維持及增長,只要市場信心不夠,在較為理性 PE 20-30x 位置交易此股,跌幅也可以十分驚人。我會持有他,但是也有隨時走人的準備,還看大市氣氛。


美股略評

Google 

在美股急跌的情況下,Google (Alphabet inc) 也被我拋售了。我仍想持有 Google ,會再估值合理及市況明朗的時候買回。

Facebook 

雖然 Facebook 業績很好, 但我已將其清倉。

前月寫: 學會當中的 J 小姐提出她的觀點, 說 Facebook 可能會幾年內沒落 我很老套, 不知道年輕一代是否已不用 Facebook 了. 我將這問題帶到 12月15 晚上的東昇同學冬聚的飯局跟各位同學討論, 得出來的結論是 Facebook 是一個很好的資訊平台, 但已不是一個有較及受歡迎的娛樂工具了. 後生一輩多用 Instagram 去 share 生活點滴, 幸好 Instagram 也是 Facebook 的一份子。

1 月時網上流傳一段關於對年輕人的訪問,大家也不妨看看。其中一張截圖十分有趣:

花無百日紅, 明顯地, Facebook 不會永遠地增長及受歡迎作為長期投資者, 唯一可以做的是監察季度業績。當我發現其 Monthly Active User (MAU) 呈下降之勢時, 就是我洗倉的時候了.

月中 Facebook  也有小型洗倉的局面。由於很多用家向 Facebook 反映沒趣,CEO / Founder Mark Zuckerberg 決定動新調教 Facebook  方向,以後在 News Feed 及付費內容等等都會小一點廣告。受此影響,Facebook 股價當天急跌至 $176 元,我在 $177 元左右也把私人倉內的 Facebook 洗得 7788 了。雖然看似衝動,但 Facebook 的業務單一性令我十分擔心。我想在好市時銷定利潤, 增加現金水平。是次投資獲得了 70% 的回報。

Nvidia 

Nvidia 最新業績非常好,盈收大增, 股價以大漲小回形成時時創歷史新高。續持有。我亦在月內再加持 40 股 Nvidia 。

Tesla

Tesla 早前公佈業績,這季每股損失 $4 美元,歷來第三新高。產量創新高,達到 26,150 部一季 (即一年 100,000 部達標). 但當中分內是 MODEL X 11,865 部, MODEL S 14,065 部, MODEL 3 只有 220 部。 MODEL 3 的產量遠低過市場預期. 但 TESLA 澄清產能沒有嚴重問題。

通常 Tesla 公佈業績會很差,股價急跌,所以我在業績前將其賣出,順出增加現金。

前月寫: 由於資本支出很大, 付運很小, 我個人預計 TESLA 二月的季度業績一定很差。

有關 tesla 的分析, 可以到以下連結:
part 1: 過去
part 2: 未來
facebook live

大市
個人不將大市看得好牛,已多次不同平台,文章,直播,場合發表了,不重複。這個月給了我一個很好short 期指的機會,可惜操作仍不太好,只有 16,000 多利潤。

上月寫:
Sth wrong with my keyboard: HSI PE ratio is approx. 17 now, even the forward PE ratio is 15.3, it is NOT cheap anymore. If the index rise 10% more, says 3,200 pts to 35,000, the current PE will be over 18 and the forward PE ratio will be over 16. It is already in a dangerous zone. Increasing cash level and stop purchasing is very important. Please bear in mind. The yield of HSI drops to a level about 2.71%, which is already 1 standard deviation below the historical average. Although it is not common to have forecast of HSI yield, my data indicates that 2018 HSI yield will not have significant improvement. As such, if HSI rise to 35,000, the HSI yield becomes 2.5%, which is considered to be extremely low. I really don't have a very bullish view on the market. Take care, friends.

大市 P/E 再抽高一點了, 股息率低一點. 只要有資金流出以及有一些重大壞消息時就是 PARTY TIME OVER. 要密切留意。到時,我應該會來個 the big short

其他

另外不在這倉亦買入了 
  • 置富 (778.HK) [本月已賣出, 微利]
  • 領展[重倉]
  • TESLA [已全數走了, 賺了一輛 tesla :) ]
  • A50 (2822.HK) [已賣出+40%]
  • 中電 (0002.HK)
  • AGNC  [走了, 要蝕一點]
作長線儲蓄 / BB 基金之用。最近也成立一小堆金錢作牛三最後炒作,包括了期權長短倉,
  • 炒作九倉分拆 (0004.HK)[已賣出, 微利],
  • 炒作廣汽 (2238.HK) [已賣出 +9%]、
  • 金茂  (0817.HK)[已賣出 +13%],
  • 中信大錳 (1091.HK) (持有, 帳面蝕)
  • 舜宇光學(2382.HK) (持有, 帳面賺)
  • 銀河娛樂 (LC)  (+252%)
  • 中國人壽 (LC)  (-100%)
  • 平安 (LC) (+500%)
  • Facebook (LC) (-100%) 等等。
  • Maple Tree REIT (+10%)
  • 及昆能 [已賣出, 微利]。
  • 我也幫BB 基金買了小小 block-chain 貸幣, 想不到幾個月已升了3 倍。
  • 中移動 [賺息蝕價];
  • 陽光房地產基金  [賺息+微利];
  • HSBC (LP) [+30%];
  • HKEX (LP) [+67.7%];
  • 騰訊 (LP) [-100 %];
  • BYD (LP) [-100 %];
講座

不經不覺已講了數次。有很多參加過的學員覺得物超所值, 因為小小的付出就可以學到一些有用的知識, 心法, 以及對某幾種類型的股票投資會更有心得。當然, 亦會有人認為不平宜,要細心考慮。其實, 從五月到現在的教學內容沒有大改,但所提及我個人持重倉的股票發展皆符合預期, 相信早期參予而又細心學習的學員必定有所得益。行動力也是人的最大的敵人,所以有時別要因小失大。一個月後港股又升了幾千點。

如對 video 教學有興趣,可以看此, 然後 email 到 hkgconsumer@gmail.com / facebook pm 跟我聯絡. 之前參加的學員也差不多學完整個單元了。 至今已收了過 140名學生了。

東昇學會一聚

1月14日, 部份東昇學會研究隊員來了我家一聚, 我們談及了 2018 年的 tactics:
  • E-commerce and Tencent (members still in bullish mind, I do not agree totally); (中了)
  • Shorting Bitcoin by ETF / Futures (中了)
  • Transfer our investment from Bitcoin to Ethereum (Neutral)
  • The overall shorting strategy for HSI.  (中了)
We hope we will have a very promising 2018. (哈哈)

本網頁純屬網誌,一切言論純粹是個人意見。本人亦無法保證網誌內容的真確性和完整性。無論在任何情況下,不應被視為投資建議,也不應被成要約、招攬、邀請、誘使、建議或推薦。 讀者一切的投資決定以及該投資決定引致的收益或損失,概與本人無關。

本人或持有本網誌所提及的資產的長倉及短倉及衍生工具, 並會在亳無預料下買入及賣出。本人對持有的資產內容偏頗,讀者應運用自己的獨立思考能力理解內容。


筆者不是證監會持牌人士,不會提供亦不是提供任何投資意見。

今個月試埋英文版:
ENGLISH VERSION:

In February, I spent most of the time of holidays and handling miscellaneous things about my family. Therefore, I don’t have time to update the portfolio and the reporting for February was based on the market data on 1st March 2018.

[Please refer to the above diagrams for the portfolio details]

The indicative price is based on the market-closed price on 1st March (Both HK/ US)

There were many trades within February:

·         Sold 100 stocks of Tencent (0700.HK) @ $435.0, profit: $16,700
·         Sold 1,500 stocks of A-Living Services (3319.HK) @ $9.55, loss: $4,125
·         Sold 8,000 stocks of Time Interconnect Tech (1729.HK) @ $0.61, profit: $880
·         Sold 40 stocks of Facebook Inc (FB) @ $178.3, profit: $6,646
·         Sold 6 stocks of Alphabet Class B (GOOG) @ $1,027, profit: $6,231
·         Sold 20 stocks of Tesla Inc (TSLA) @ $340, profit: $6,781
·         Sold 70 stocks of Tesla Inc (TSLA) @ $338.9, loss: $3,776
·         Bought 1000 stocks of Links REITS @ $67.85
·         Bought 40 stocks of Nvidia @ $245

The previous trades of HSBC / BocHK / Hangseng bank / Apple / JetBlue Airline / iBond / American Airline / ADI Tech / Cathay Pacific / HKEX / Pingan Insurance / AAC Tech / Tongda Group / Tesla (change of broker) / CN Literature / China Software International / Tencent etc realised profit or lost. I am not going to repeat here.

Announced / Received Dividend: $27,835 (5.6%Y / 2 years)
Expected amount of Dividend in 2018: $3,600 (0.72%Y only)

Taking into account of handling fee, commissions and tax ($9,000, 1.8%), the portfolio worth became $829,000 (included dividends). The change is about +65.8% from the start date of this fund. It drops 2.8% when compared to Jan 2018.

In the fund, the cash level is about $422,246; Profit (Realised / Unrealised) is about $329,000; Percentage of investment is reduced 49%.

At the same time, Hong Kong HS Index up about 41.4% from 21,950; DJIA Index up about 49.3% from 16,472.
The fund is slightly outperform the above two indexes, with the consideration of fee and dividend.


Return and Management

By the end of the 29th month, this portfolio was set up about 2.5 years. Beneficial from the bull market, the return is about 65%, which is already 4 times to the original target. The original target for two year is 15.6%, which consideration of earning per share grows 10% each year. Besides, it is successfully reduces the number the stocks to 3 nos. only (2nos. of HK stock / 1 US stock / 1 mini-futures). The adjustment of the fund avoids the huge drop of index this month. It also in-line with the long-term goal for increasing cash level.

Hong Kong Stock

Links
The stock price of Links hit the historical peak of $75, higher than our valuation. In the whatsapp group for students, I had already point out that it was logical to reduce the position of Links. By then, the US bond yield was going up, and coincidently the US / HK markets dropped significantly. The stock price falls to the level of $65. Similar situation were found in Dec 2016. At that time the stock price was below $50.

The rationale of retreating was that traditional investors of REITS emphasize the importance of the dividend yield of the REITS. The difference between the yield and the US bond yield is their measuring indicator. When the US bond yield is expected to rise, the difference between the two will reduced. However, investing US bond is always having lower risk when compared to REITS. Therefore, reducing in difference is not beneficial for REITS.

Besides, some analysts also pointed out the assumed capitalisation rate use in the valuation of Links are low. With the consideration of the interest rate going up as well as the general rental market in Hong Kong, the cap rate for valuation might be increased in future. The valuation of Links’ properties might reduce. Therefore, the price momentum for Links is weak recently.

However, my view on investing Links was not about the dividend. Personally I think the stock price will reflect its value someday sometime.
In February and 1st Mar, there were two trading days that links has a re-bound over 1.5%. The first driver was the expectation of interest rate increase will not be as vigorous as before, attracting a lot of purchasing power; the 2nd driver was the deal of selling of 17 properties was settled on 28 Feb. Links has issued a notice and announced an even lower cap rate for the sold properties. Investors might expect an even higher value of the investing properties inside Links’ portfolio for 2017/2018 FY announcement later. Again, a lot of purchasing power was therefore attracted. (Although there was a disclaimer that the cap rate might has no relation to the valuation of the rest of the properties for Links)

Tencent

I bought Tencent before because I expected its ability for earning growth as well as it potential in the areas of financial technology. The previous announced result indicated that it was in the right direction. The last quarterly result shows it ability for generating huge earnings. Many analysts had reviewed its target price. To my best knowledge and information, there are already at least six analysts advised Tencent will have a target price over $500 in the future 12 months.

In the past three months, tencent retreated to approx.. $360. I believe some of the investors had already sold their stock during the retreat. And recently (before the significant retreat), tencent’s price reached the historical peak of $476.

With the significant retreat of both HK / US markets in Feb, I decided to sell tencent within $430-$440. Eventually, all of my tencent stock was sold.

With the valuation becomes more reasonable and a foreseeable uptrend of the market, I will definitely buy the stock back.

Paragraphs written in previous months:

The risk of holding tencent is high valuation. The current trading position of tencent is at Current PE of 50x-60x. When the market is bullish, such a high PE can be bearly maintained. However, when the market is bearish or volatile, tencent or alike stock is in a dangerous position for selling. Since its market cap is high, PE is high and high correlation to Hang Seng Index, shorting of tencent will be significant if there is the tendency of lowering the Index. When investor’s confidence of holding this stock is diminishing, regardless how well the business it is, the stock might be traded at more reasonable PE range of 20x-30x. The potential downside will be significant and noticeable. I will hold the stock of tencent with a very cautious mind of selling it anytime when the market is retreat.

US Stock

Google

Due to the risk of collapse of US market, I sold all Alphabet stock. I wish to purchase it again if the valuation is available and when the market is considered less volatile.

Facebook

Although the result of Facebook beats the expectation, I decided to close all of my position of Facebook stock.

Paragraphs written in previous months:

Miss J of the TS Research Team expressed her view on FB. She worried the trend of using facebook will be gone in coming years. I am very old-fashion and I have no idea whether the younger generation is using facebook or not.

This issue was widely discussed in the TS winter gathering with other students. In conclusion, facebook is a very effective platform for information sharing, however, it is no longer funny and entertaining. We believed the younger generation will spend time on Instagram for sharing. The only merit is that Instagram is part of the Facebook Group.

Obviously, the facebook business is not considered sustainable. It will not grow forever. As the long-term investor, close monitoring on quarterly result is essential. When there is trend of dropping Monthly Active User (MAU) number, I will consider to sell all of the Facebook’s stock.

FB had a hugh pressure on its price in Jan. Many users reflected to facebook that it is not funny anymore. The CEO / Founder, Mr Mark Zuckerberg, decided to re-position Facebook. From now on, the sponsored stories will be appeared in lower frequency in the News Feed. After Mark’s announcement, the price of FB dropped to $176. I sold most of my FB stock at $177. The action might be considered to be sudden without carefully thought. However, the single nature of business did worry me. I will sell it with considerable amount of profit at market’s bull. This investment offered me 70% profit on capital.

Nvidia

The latest result of Nvidia is outperform. Earnings increased dramatically. The stock price has a strong momentum to break the records from time to time. I hold my position of Nvidia and purchased additional 40 stock near the end of Feb.

Tesla

Tesla announced its 4th Quarter result with a loss per share of USD$4 approx. It productivity and delivery reached historical high with 26,150 cars delivered in one quarter.  It consisted of 11,865 units of Model X, 14,065 units of Model S and only 220 units of Model 3. The delivery / productivity of Model 3 did not meet any expectation of the market. Tesla clarified there is no major problem in manufactory, except a few bottlenecks in supply chains.

In my opinion, usually tesla stock price might drop after the announcement of the result due to the poor financial indicators. Therefore, I sold all stock of tesla and increase the cash level of the fund before the announcement of the 4th Quarter result.

Market

Personally I didn’t have a too bullish view on the market. I had expressed my views on many platforms, articles, videos etc. I am not going to repeat. There was a golden opportunity of shorting HS Index in Feb. However, my trades were not done well and the only profit is HKD $16,000+.

Paragraphs written in previous months:
Sth wrong with my keyboard: HSI PE ratio is approx. 17 now, even the forward PE ratio is 15.3, it is NOT cheap anymore. If the index rise 10% more, says 3,200 pts to 35,000, the current PE will be over 18 and the forward PE ratio will be over 16. It is already in a dangerous zone. Increasing cash level and stop purchasing is very important. Please bear in mind. The yield of HSI drops to a level about 2.71%, which is already 1 standard deviation below the historical average. Although it is not common to have forecast of HSI yield, my data indicates that 2018 HSI yield will not have significant improvement. As such, if HSI rise to 35,000, the HSI yield becomes 2.5%, which is considered to be extremely low. I really don't have a very bullish view on the market. Take care, friends.

When the P/E of HS Index is even higher and the yield is even lower, a single bad news could drive the significant retreat of the market. I considered it as “Party Time Over”. I need to be cautious and monitor it closely. By the time, I might conduct a big short to everything.

Gathering with Research Team Members

On 14 January, some of the team members visited my place. We widely discussed our tactics for 2018, includes:

·                     E-commerce and Tencent (members still in bullish mind, I do not agree totally); (Bingo!)
·                     Shorting Bitcoin by ETF / Futures (Bingo!)
·                     Transfer our investment from Bitcoin to Ethereum (Neutral)
·                     The overall shorting strategy for HSI.  (Bingo!)
We hope we will have a very promising 2018.

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This webpage and this article are web-based blog. All of the content is the personal view purely. I cannot guarantee the integrity or the accuracy of the content. Under all circumstances, the content shall not be regarded as investment’s advice, they are not invitation, funding rising, recommendations, advice etc. The reader shall be responsible solely of their investment decision. There is no direct or indirect connection of the content linked to the reader investor’s profit or loss.

I personally might have long or short positions and the derivatives of all of the assets mentioned in the article. Under unpredicted conditions without prior notification, I will open or close the positions. I consider I have bias on the asset that I may have interested to. The readers shall read the content with their own understanding.

I am not the licensed person of SEC HK. I will not offer any advice on investment.

3 則留言:

  1. 我很擔心加息對領展每基金資產單位的影響,
    請問東昇兄對它的每單金單位淨值的估算是多少?

    回覆刪除
  2. 比特币的投资价值
    得到 全球的肯定

    比特币的优势 无涨跌幅限制等优势,使投资者更快、更多获利 多家顶级科技公司正在研究开发 比特币自由透明的区块链技术,这将被视为金融界的重大突破。 比特币和股票类似,都是通过赚取差价获利 比特币不仅能做多,还能做空,最高提供5X杠杆 无涨跌幅限制等优势,使投资者更快、更多获利 多家顶级科技公司正在研究开发 比特币自由透明的区块链技术,这将被视为金融界的重大突破。

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  3. eToro is the ultimate forex broker for rookie and established traders.

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東昇 是土生土長的香港 80 後,和很多香港人一樣,沒有家底,畢業後所有事都是靠自己的。19 歲開始投資股票,27歲獨力上車,現在向財務自由第一個milestone努力中。 希望在此分享投資心得及經驗。 我這個實在的上車故事,總可以給人們一些不離地又沒有嘩眾的分享吧? 歡迎留言/電郵,一定解答。 Contact: hkgconsumer@gmail.com